Brace yourself for a potentially bumpy tax season in 2026. The IRS is facing a perfect storm of challenges, and taxpayers could be caught in the crossfire. According to the National Taxpayer Advocate, Erin M. Collins, the upcoming tax filing season is shaping up to be a real test for the agency, and by extension, for millions of Americans. But here's where it gets controversial: while the IRS managed to navigate 2025 without major hiccups, Collins warns that 2026 is a whole different ballgame.
In her annual report to Congress, Collins highlights a trifecta of troubles: a staggering 27% reduction in the IRS workforce, constant leadership changes, and the rollout of complex tax law revisions mandated by the Republican tax and spending bill signed by President Trump. These factors, she argues, could spell trouble for taxpayers who encounter issues during filing. And this is the part most people miss: while most taxpayers might sail through the process, the true measure of success will be how effectively the IRS can assist those who run into problems.
The tax season kicked off on Monday, and top officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and IRS CEO Frank Bisignano, are putting on a brave face, promising a smooth ride. Bisignano even announced a reorganization of IRS leadership, expressing confidence in their readiness. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has been touting “substantial tax refunds” as a solution to the affordability crisis. Sounds great, right? But here’s the catch: other watchdogs aren’t so sure.
Diana M. Tengesdal, from the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration, has raised red flags, pointing out that IRS staffing is back at 2021 levels, and there’s a backlog of unprocessed returns and taxpayer correspondence. The IRS started 2025 with around 102,000 employees but ended with just 74,000, thanks to a wave of firings and layoffs. While last year’s tax season workers couldn’t take buyouts until after the filing deadline, many of those customer service reps have since left, leaving a significant gap.
Despite efforts to modernize tax administration, Tengesdal’s office doubts these initiatives will fully offset the staffing losses in time for 2026. Glen Frost, a tax and litigation expert, warns that taxpayers are already feeling the pinch, with refund claims at risk of expiring due to delays. “Real people’s livelihoods are at stake,” he emphasizes.
In 2025, the IRS processed over 165 million individual tax returns, with 94% filed electronically, and the average refund was $3,167. But will 2026 see similar efficiency? That remains to be seen. Is the IRS truly prepared for the challenges ahead, or are taxpayers in for a rough ride? Share your thoughts in the comments—we’d love to hear your take on this contentious issue.
