Imagine signing the largest contract in baseball history and then shattering records left and right in your first two seasons with a new team. That's exactly what Shohei Ohtani did with the Los Angeles Dodgers. But here's where it gets even more impressive: after winning two championships, two MVP awards, and setting two single-season home run records, Ohtani is now on the cusp of making Dodgers history yet again in 2026. Let’s dive into the numbers and explore just how close he is to rewriting the record books.
In 2024, Ohtani blasted 54 home runs, surpassing Shawn Green’s 22-year-old franchise record by five. Then, in 2025, he added one more to his tally, becoming the only player in MLB history to hit exactly 55 home runs in a single season. And this is the part most people miss: with 109 home runs in just two seasons, Ohtani is already 31st in Dodgers history. But the real excitement lies in what he could achieve next.
The Dodgers record for most home runs in a three-year span is currently held by Duke Snider, who hit 125 home runs from 1954 to 1956. Ohtani needs just 17 home runs in 2026 to surpass this mark. Given his recent performance—averaging nearly 47 home runs per year over the last five seasons—this feat seems well within reach. But here’s the controversial part: could Ohtani not only break the record but also challenge Snider’s dominance as the only Dodger with multiple 40-home-run seasons? It’s a bold claim, but the numbers suggest it’s possible.
Let’s look at the projections for Ohtani’s 2026 season. Systems like ZiPS predict 52 home runs, while others like Steamer and Marcel forecast 44. Even the lower estimates would put him in rarefied air. Here’s a thought-provoking question for you: If Ohtani continues at this pace, could he become the greatest power hitter in Dodgers history? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.
To put Ohtani’s potential achievement in perspective, only six Dodgers have had three or more consecutive seasons of 30 or more home runs. Duke Snider stands out with five straight years of 40-plus home runs, a record Ohtani could challenge if he maintains his current trajectory. With 233 home runs over the last five seasons, Ohtani’s consistency is undeniable.
So, how many home runs will Shohei Ohtani hit in 2026? Will he break the three-year record? Or will he go even further and cement his legacy as one of the greatest Dodgers of all time? The stage is set, and the baseball world is watching. What’s your prediction?
